Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Scrubbed out of Steel
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 17.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 53.5% | +2.3 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |